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Water Neos TonorisTier 2
at Sentinel Games DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.7%
avg ELO +7.3 per match
expected value
54.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1208
· median 1208
· range 1208–1208
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1149
Q1 1243
Q3 1410
1577
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos Tonoris decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
